Health

Symptom-tracking app finds 12% drop in number of people getting ill with virus every day…

Britain’s Omicron outbreak has peaked, one other surveillance examine confirmed right now in an additional enhance to hopes that the worst of the present wave is over. 

King’s College London researchers estimated the number of people falling ill with the virus every day plunged by 12 per cent over the previous week, with 183,000 symptomatic infections now occurring every day. Cases dropped in all age teams and every area besides the North East.

The crew’s earlier estimate — based mostly on knowledge reported to a symptom-tracking app by tons of of hundreds of Britons — stood at a file excessive 208,000.  

Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist who leads the examine, argued the info ‘suggests the Omicron wave has peaked’, chiming with official statistics and a raft of different research. He additionally mentioned it was ‘reassuring’ that instances had flatlined in the aged, who have been most in danger from the highly-transmissible variant.  

And Professor Spector claimed Omicron would seemingly ‘proceed to flow into at manageable ranges in the inhabitants till late spring’ and that signs of the virus have been now ‘indistinguishable’ from widespread colds or flu.

Meanwhile, the UK Health Security Agency’s weekly report right now revealed that Covid instances fell in 87 per cent of England’s areas final week, or 129 out of 149 native authorities. For comparability, it was solely dropping in 18 council areas in the earlier seven-day spell. Its figures — based mostly on nationwide testing knowledge — additionally revealed instances dropped in all age teams besides the under-20s, and throughout all areas besides the North East. 

Nationally, hospital admissions have already began to flatten off, providing extra hopes that the worst of the third wave is over. And Covid deaths are monitoring at about half the extent of a foul flu year. 

But NHS bosses right now warned it’s nonetheless too early for ministers to pivot their technique in direction of residing with the virus, saying hospitals have been nonetheless dealing with ‘very excessive ranges’ of Covid admissions.  

Saffron Cordery, deputy chief govt of NHS Providers — an organisation which represents trusts throughout the nation, mentioned: ‘There is appreciable uncertainty about how it will play out.’

Sajid Javid right now additionally accepted ‘there are already early indicators that the rate of hospitalisation is beginning to sluggish’. But the Health Secretary advised the Commons Omicron ‘nonetheless has the potential to result in vital numbers of people in hospital’. He mentioned: ‘This virus remains to be with us. And there are nonetheless more likely to be tough weeks forward.’

King’s College London scientists estimated 183,364 people have been now catching the virus every day, down from the file excessive of 208,471 in the earlier seven-day spell. The knowledge can be from well being knowledge science company ZOE

Covid cases are now ticking down in all England's regions except the North East (green line), they said, but even here there are now signs that infections are plateauing

Covid instances at the moment are ticking down in all England’s areas besides the North East (inexperienced line), they mentioned, however even right here there at the moment are indicators that infections are plateauing

Every age group is also seeing their Covid cases tick downwards. But the scientists said a rise in children (orange line) amid the return of schools could not be ruled out, which would trigger an uptick in other groups

Every age group can be seeing their Covid instances tick downwards. But the scientists mentioned an increase in kids (orange line) amid the return of colleges couldn’t be dominated out, which might set off an uptick in different teams

They also found people who were suffering from cold-like symptoms were more likely to have Covid (blue line) than other respiratory diseases (orange line). They said symptoms triggered by the virus were 'indistinguishable' from a cold

They additionally discovered people who have been affected by cold-like signs have been extra more likely to have Covid (blue line) than different respiratory illnesses (orange line). They mentioned signs triggered by the virus have been ‘indistinguishable’ from a chilly

January 2
January 9

UK Health Security Agency figures confirmed Covid instances have been falling in 87 per cent of England’s areas final week, or 129 out of 149 native authorities. For comparability, in the earlier seven-day spell (left) instances have been solely falling in 15 council areas

UK Health Security Agency figures published today showed cases were now dropping in all age groups except the under-19s. Experts had warned cases could rise in this age group as children returned to school from the festive break

UK Health Security Agency figures revealed right now confirmed instances have been now dropping in all age teams besides the under-19s. Experts had warned instances might rise in this age group as kids returned to highschool from the festive break

Covid cases dropped across all England's regions except the North East, official data showed, where they continued to rise

Covid instances dropped throughout all England’s areas besides the North East, official knowledge confirmed, the place they continued to rise

And latest figures showed that flu cases remained well below the levels reported pre-Covid, as the seasonal menace failed to materialise as a major threat for the second year in a row

And newest figures confirmed that flu instances remained properly beneath the degrees reported pre-Covid, because the seasonal menace didn’t materialise as a significant menace for the second year in a row

Sajid Javid today also accepted 'there are already early signs that the rate of hospitalisation is starting to slow'. But the Health Secretary told the Commons Omicron 'still has the potential to lead to significant numbers of people in hospital'. He said: 'This virus is still with us. And there are still likely to be difficult weeks ahead'

Sajid Javid right now additionally accepted ‘there are already early indicators that the rate of hospitalisation is beginning to sluggish’. But the Health Secretary advised the Commons Omicron ‘nonetheless has the potential to result in vital numbers of people in hospital’. He mentioned: ‘This virus remains to be with us. And there are nonetheless more likely to be tough weeks forward’

Britain remains to be many months from residing with the virus, NHS boss warns

It remains to be ‘untimely’ to speak about residing with the virus, an NHS boss warned right now.

Saffron Cordery, the deputy chief govt of NHS Providers which represents hospital trusts, admitted the well being service would return to a ‘new sort of regular’.

But she mentioned it was nonetheless in the ‘center section’ between being overwhelmed and dealing at full capability. 

Ms Cordery advised Times Radio: ‘I feel there may be appreciable uncertainty nonetheless about how it will play out as a result of ranges come down in London, however they are going up in the North West, they are going up in the East of England, so we have to assume actually fastidiously about the way it’s impacting, and impacting otherwise throughout the nation.’

Asked whether or not the nation was able to stay with the virus, she mentioned it was ‘untimely’ to shift to this technique inside the subsequent few months. 

Scientists say the UK is now on the verge of beating the pandemic and turning Covid into nothing greater than a seasonal menace just like the flu. 

And Boris Johnson is known to be drawing up a ‘residing with Covid’ technique to keep away from the necessity for restrictions every winter.

But this is not anticipated to be revealed till the tip of March on the earliest, when winter pressures may have subsided. 

The King’s College London estimates — made in collaboration with tech agency ZOE — urged round one in 24 people in the UK at present have symptomatic Covid. Prevalence charges have been highest in England, nevertheless.  

The crew additionally calculated that 52 per cent of people struggling signs of a respiratory virus have been seemingly contaminated with Covid.

Professor Spector mentioned: ‘The ZOE knowledge suggests the Omicron wave has peaked, and instances are beginning to come down in nearly all areas of the UK. 

‘Hospitalisation, deaths and early knowledge on the severity of Omicron can be trying optimistic. 

‘The different reassuring signal is that instances in the aged are plateauing at a low stage, sparing this extra weak group from the worst of the Omicron wave. 

‘This is probably going as a result of this group has been extra cautious and others are being cautious round them. 

‘However, we will not rule out an uptick in kids, which might then have a knock on impact on the opposite age teams.’ 

He additionally known as on everybody to stay to ‘Plan B’ guidelines, saying: ‘In phrases of steerage, working from dwelling stays a straightforward factor many of us can do to sluggish unfold, and carrying top quality masks on public transport to me nonetheless feels wise.

‘Covid signs at the moment are for the primary time this winter extra widespread than colds and flu and are indistinguishable. 

‘I do not anticipate these charges to go all the way down to zero as Omicron is so infectious that it’s going to most likely proceed to flow into at manageable ranges in the inhabitants till late spring.’

The figures are the most recent to counsel that the worst of the Omicron outbreak has handed with out hospitals being overwhelmed or harsher curbs needing to be imposed.

UKHSA figures right now confirmed Covid instances dropped in 87 per cent of England’s native authorities over the week to January 11, in comparison with the earlier seven-day spell.

Of the highest 10 areas seeing the most important drop in instances, six have been in London. Havering noticed the sharpest drop in instances (down 37 per cent), adopted by Southend in Essex (down 35.6 per cent) and Bexley (down 34.6 per cent).

At the opposite finish of the dimensions, Sunderland noticed the quickest leap in instances (up 34 per cent), adopted by Darlington (up 33 per cent) and South Tyneside (32.9 per cent).

Broken down by age group, the figures confirmed instances dropped in every age group besides under-19s.

Adults in their 20s nonetheless had the best an infection rate (2,362.8 instances per 100,000), whereas adults in their 30s had the second highest (2,084.4).

Infection charges have been lowest amongst adults over 80 years outdated (602.8), and people in their 70s (652.4) in a plateauing from traits in current weeks the place they started to rise shortly.

Experts have warned instances amongst kids will seemingly rise as they return to highschool from the festive break, which might then trickle into different teams.

UKHSA knowledge additionally confirmed there was barely any change in the number of flu instances over the newest week, as the dreaded seasonal menace didn’t materialise for the second week working.

The promising raft of statistics has prompted strategies from high scientists that the UK is on the brink of exiting the pandemic.

But a senior NHS boss right now warned that it was ‘untimely’ to maneuver in direction of residing with the virus like flu as a result of of the strain hospitals are nonetheless underneath.

A record 3.7million people were infected with Covid on any day last week in England ¿ but cases were slowing nationally, the country's gold-standard Office for National Statistics' surveillance study has found

A file 3.7million people have been contaminated with Covid on any day final week in England — however instances have been slowing nationally, the nation’s gold-standard Office for National Statistics’ surveillance examine has discovered

Almost 98% of adults have Covid-fighting antibodies, official surveillance exhibits 

Almost every grownup in England has Covid-fighting antibodies, official surveillance confirmed right now.

Office for National Statistics testing mentioned 97.5 per cent of over-18s had the proteins in the week starting December 20, the most recent obtainable.

Antibodies — triggered by vaccines or earlier infections — present a layer of safety in opposition to the virus.

But they don’t assure somebody won’t catch the virus or change into severely ill, though they tremendously cut back the chance.

Their presence suggests different elements of the immune system are primed to battle the virus, equivalent to T-cells, though it’s tougher to check for these.

This week’s consequence have been the best estimate for the proportion of adults having Covid antibodies on file.

They have been based mostly on blood assessments carried out on nearly 17,000 adults in the nation.

It comes after high scientists mentioned that the UK was now on the brink of exiting the pandemic.

But NHS bosses have warned the well being service remains to be underneath ‘vital’ strain.

Ms Cordery admitted the well being service was going to steadily return to a ‘new sort of regular’.

But she cautioned it was nonetheless in the ‘center section’ between being overwhelmed and dealing at full capability.

Ms Cordery advised Times Radio: ‘I feel there may be appreciable uncertainty nonetheless about how it will play out as a result of ranges come down in London.

‘But they are going up in the North West, they are going up in the East of England, so we have to assume actually fastidiously about the way it’s impacting, and impacting otherwise throughout the nation.

‘I feel we’re someplace between the center section and going in direction of nonetheless being past full stretch, actually, as a result of what we’ve got to recollect is that the NHS is not an island, we’ve got a big impact of Covid throughout all of the totally different providers that work alongside and with the NHS.’

She mentioned there have been nonetheless ‘very excessive ranges of hospital admissions’, and that hospitals have been nonetheless seeing ‘vital’ numbers of beds occupied by sufferers needing ventilators. 

Mr Javid advised the Commons right now that promising an infection knowledge ‘doesn’t, as of but, replicate the affect of people returning to work and faculty’. He added: ‘So, we should proceed with warning.

‘Due to the lag between infections and hospitalisations, the NHS will stay underneath vital strain over the subsequent few weeks.

‘It is encouraging, nevertheless, that in this wave we’ve got not seen a rise in Covid intensive care sufferers, and there are already early indicators that the rate of hospitalisation is beginning to sluggish.

‘We know that Omicron is much less extreme. But no-one needs to be underneath any illusions, it’s extreme for anybody that finally ends up in hospital, and that’s way more seemingly when you have not had the jab.’

It comes after the nation’s gold-standard surveillance examine yesterday discovered a file 3.7million people have been contaminated with Covid on any day final week in England — however instances have been slowing nationally.

Analysts on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated roughly one in 15 people would have examined optimistic on January 6, up by about 14 per cent on the earlier seven days. 

That is the smallest improve since Omicron grew to become dominant initially of December and the ONS mentioned it was ‘encouraging’ that infections are falling in the previous epicentre London.  

The ONS’ weekly an infection survey is considered being probably the most dependable indicator of the outbreak as a result of it makes use of random sampling of 100,000 people, relatively than counting on people coming ahead for assessments. Despite promising indicators, it nonetheless confirmed as many as one in 10 have been thought to have had Covid in the North West and Yorkshire.  

Nationally, the UK recorded 129,587 Covid instances yesterday, which was its lowest every day tally since late December and down a 3rd on the identical time final week.

Its hospitalisations additionally look like plateauing with the most recent figures — as much as January 8 — displaying 2,049 admissions, barely a change from the two,034 seven days beforehand. 

But the number of sufferers needing ventilators has barely risen all through the wave as Omicron is much less extreme than earlier strains. There are at present round 800 Covid sufferers on ventilators nationwide, properly beneath the height of 4,000 final winter. 

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