Economists warn UK economy could take £30bn hit and see worsening of provide shortages if Government imposes one other lockdown
The UK economy could take a £30billion hit and see a worsening of provide shortages if the Government imposes one other lockdown, economists have warned.
Boris Johnson has vowed that Britain won’t be plunged into one other full lockdown, however has refused to rule out a ‘Plan B’ possibility that includes ‘gentle contact’ measures, comparable to vaccine passports, masks and dealing from house.
Panmure Gordon chief economist Simon French mentioned: ‘The unlikely however unofficial Plan C is a full lockdown, if a vaccine-beating variant emerges. That would knock the underside out of commuter hubs and trigger much more issues with provide chains as individuals swap away from spending on companies and in the direction of shopping for merchandise.’
Signing off: Boris Johnson has vowed that Britain won’t be plunged into one other full lockdown, however has refused to rule out a ‘Plan B’ possibility
French forecasts seven per cent development in GDP – about £140billion – for 2021 if the Covid scenario doesn’t worsen. He mentioned a Plan B method would hit spending on companies from cinemas to hairdressers, knocking as much as £10billion off output, and a tough lockdown much like the primary three months of the year could cost £30billion.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, mentioned: ‘The economy has turn out to be extra resilient to lockdowns and the affect might be milder than with the primary lockdown.’
GDP plummeted by 20.4 per cent within the second quarter of 2020 – throughout the UK’s hardest lockdown – however dropped by just one.5 per cent within the first quarter of this year.
Nomura chief UK economist George Buckley doesn’t anticipate the economy to return to pre-pandemic well being till subsequent spring.