Boris Johnson’s landslide basic election victory in 2019 secured his position in Number 10, however he can solely keep in put up with the backing of Conservative backbench MPs.
That is now going to be put to the check, with a confidence vote as a result of be held later immediately.
It follows the publication of the Sue Gray report into lockdown-breaking events in Number 10 and Whitehall, launched in late May, and the Met Police’s investigation that concluded in late April.
Earlier the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs confirmed he had acquired sufficient letters of no confidence in the prime minister to set off a vote.
So how does the course of work and what can we count on?
Letters of no confidence
The confidence vote has been known as as a results of Conservative MPs sending letters of no confidence in the PM to the chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbench MPs.
Often known as “the men in grey suits”, the 1922 Committee is led by an 18-member government committee with a chair elected by committee members.
MPs disgruntled with their celebration’s present management can submit no confidence letters to the committee’s chairman, registering their disapproval.
The Conservative Party guidelines state that at the least 15% of Tory MPs should write a no confidence letter to make a management problem doable.
This determine presently equates to 54 Conservative MPs needing to submit a letter to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady.
Letters are handed in confidentially, so no correct complete of how many have been submitted to Sir Graham is publicly accessible. He is due to this fact possible the solely one that is aware of the actual tally.
In 2018, when former prime minister Theresa May confronted a no confidence vote after the then threshold of 48 letters was reached, Sir Graham stated not even his spouse knew how many MPs had written to him.
At the time, solely 24 MPs had publicly revealed they’d handed in letters.
Politics Hub: Live developments as Boris Johnson faces confidence vote
A vote on the celebration management
The vote will happen between 6pm and 8pm this night in the type of a secret poll the place all Conservative MPs will must determine in the event that they again the present chief or not.
Mr Johnson must safe the backing of half of his MPs plus one to outlive.
If he have been to achieve the backing of the 180 MPs wanted he would be immune from a additional problem for one more year, beneath the present guidelines.
If he have been to lose, there would be a management contest and he would be barred from coming into.
However, if Mr Johnson have been to simply scrape sufficient votes to permit him to remain on, he may determine to face down of his personal accord – mechanically triggering a management contest.
A management contest
If Boris Johnson does not safe the confidence votes required, a management contest will be held to determine his alternative.
The 1922 Committee would set the timetable for the contest.
To participate in the race, a Tory MP has to be nominated by eight colleagues.
If greater than two MPs put themselves ahead and safe sufficient nominations to run for chief, a collection of secret ballots will be held to whittle them down.
The particular person who receives the fewest variety of votes will be eradicated after each spherical till two candidates stay.
When simply two MPs are left in the race, celebration members get to make their ultimate selection earlier than a deadline set by the 1922 Committee.
The winner will turn into Conservative Party chief and PM.
Assuming the new chief was capable of command the confidence of the House of Commons, they might not be required to name a basic election.
However, a new chief may select to name an election in the event that they wished to safe their very own mandate.